On the Ukraine

Watching the turmoil this morning in the Ukraine certainly reminded me of the Arab Spring. While Anne Applebaum (Apple Tree) describes the clash as between “institutions and rule of law” on the side of the European Union, and arbitrary rule on the side of the Russians, (Washington Post) it seems to me to reflect a wider issue: that of modernity versus tribalism. That is why it seems related to the Arab Spring revolts. Institutions and rule of law go with modern society while the normal human habits fit the more tribal behaviors as described by Frances Fukuyama in his book The Origins of Political Order. This ties in beautifully with the question of the value of education – specifically, a liberal arts education, because that is what makes the difference between the two societies. If a certain percentage of the population has been educated into the liberal western tradition and think of themselves as individuals with rights and obligations in a society that is legitimate and governed by a democratically elected legislature then all of the benefits of modernity ought to be available. What is happening in more third world countries, or second world countries that find themselves to move away from the dominance of Russia, is more people are becoming modern and so want their societies to become modern too. What is of concern is that while this movement is happening in a wide circle around the EU, in modern countries we find a decreasing interest in supporting the education that enables people to grow up to be modern. Decreasing the funding for arts educations decreases the number of people necessary to maintain a free egalitarian society. “Freedom is not free” is not true just with regard to expenditures on arms and defense, it also is true with regard to the cost of raising modern individuals. These are people who read literature and grow up to respect others outside of their immediate circle. As Steven Pinker explains in his book The Better Angels of Our Nature, we are living in the least violent per capita period in human history (check his statistics). What has brought about this could easily reverse itself if we do not continue to raise educated modern people. These are people that do not simply know how to perform some vital function in the technological infrastructure but that also appreciate the history, philosophy, morality, and splendors of the culture that arose out of the Christian west. If we give up on that we will rapidly become the kind of society all of the people in the rebellious periphery of modern society are trying to escape.

Some resources on Shakespeare Romeo and here is the poem in its English translation. Did AC Bradley write about this play as part of his description of tragedies? It appears to be more similar to the comedies.

Common sense too much faith in common sense can lead to...it is not rocket science. We are really good at rocket science. But common sense does not work outside of concrete everyday situations. Complex systems don't use those forms of logic. A problem of the concept of obviousness itself. (Black Swans only works in reverse since everything was being said and we only figure out what was relevant after the fact.) Which clues are red herrings? The explanations can only be told once we know the ending. Why is Mona Lisa more important than John the Baptist? Why was Harry Potter so successful? Because it has the attributes it has! This is vacuous. But in complex systems history never repeats itself. Admit to yourself that your intuition is not as reliable as it seems. The scientific method is based on distrust of intuition. So we should apply this technique to other areas we have not thought appropriate. Don't rely on one opinion. Especially your own opinion. Give up predicting things you can't. Instead build strategies that don't rely on those accurate predictions. Generate hedge strategies to reduce your exposure to unexpected outcomes. The Halo effect - is uncorrelated in reality. Sports is almost the only thing like that - where we measure independent observations. When it is not possible resist the temptation to evaluate it based on its success. Talent and success are not closely connected. Today technology enables us to gather data on social connections. Funny! He then goes on to try to predict the future based on the past!

Fighting against entropy

on and on and on....A sentence - it can happen. Universe in a box. One brain would be more likely. Why they started in this very special place and configuration? Quickly. Yesterday's versus today's. Used to be three versions. Big Bang - opened and closed. Infinite versus crunch. A Boltzman brain. Does that explain the invention of the stint? Hearts deconstructing - doctors and medical inventions compete against the entropy. Lambda Positive. Negative lambda - causes sudden death to the universe. In our universe lambda is positive. V = HD Hubble's Law.

This has been a month for reflection on death. Besides friends who have had loved ones die, our family lost a beloved uncle at 84 one week, and then Donna lost her father. Then we went back east to attend the funeral for Donna's father at Wetzle Funeral Home - that link should be to the pictures they collected for a slide show. We are carrying his ashes back to Alaska to spread them on his favorite mountain. But while here we also visited my mom and dad in Cape May. We arrived to mom and dad both in serious conditions. But within the three days while there mom had multiple appointments and dad ended up being flown by helicopter to Penn Presbyterian where they inserted a stint. All of this only happened because many family members were deeply involved in trying to do the best for them even though their own lives continued at a frantic pace. It feels wonderful having brothers and sisters / in law and neighbors all pulling together to help mom and dad. At the moment both are feeling much better, but I can't help but worry that this is a temporary fix for both of them. Sigh. What a way to be reminded how mortal we all are. Each day is another in our own temporary lives. For months Donna has been studying angels and experiences of near death in books of all sorts. I have been reading things like the Catholic Catechism, works by Thomas Aquinas, including a new book on him by Denys Turner, and Alister McGrath's Introduction to Theology (I have seriously enjoyed several of his other books especially Dawkins's God. So Donna and I have been interested in the same sorts of things but via different approaches - I think. To add to this - I am the oldest I have ever been! When I read the obits I see at least as many names of people that died younger than I am as people older. (Though Kant's first great book was written when he was my age - 62.) And then we drive through Philadelphia - at rush hour - in a subcompact car. It is so small we had to tow our luggage. Thank goodness they have wheels on them.