Common sense too much faith in common sense can lead to...it is not rocket science. We are really good at rocket science. But common sense does not work outside of concrete everyday situations. Complex systems don't use those forms of logic. A problem of the concept of obviousness itself. (Black Swans only works in reverse since everything was being said and we only figure out what was relevant after the fact.) Which clues are red herrings? The explanations can only be told once we know the ending. Why is Mona Lisa more important than John the Baptist? Why was Harry Potter so successful? Because it has the attributes it has! This is vacuous. But in complex systems history never repeats itself. Admit to yourself that your intuition is not as reliable as it seems. The scientific method is based on distrust of intuition. So we should apply this technique to other areas we have not thought appropriate. Don't rely on one opinion. Especially your own opinion. Give up predicting things you can't. Instead build strategies that don't rely on those accurate predictions. Generate hedge strategies to reduce your exposure to unexpected outcomes. The Halo effect - is uncorrelated in reality. Sports is almost the only thing like that - where we measure independent observations. When it is not possible resist the temptation to evaluate it based on its success. Talent and success are not closely connected. Today technology enables us to gather data on social connections. Funny! He then goes on to try to predict the future based on the past!